{"id":26380,"date":"2024-10-12T14:16:24","date_gmt":"2024-10-12T06:16:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.semsys.com.tw\/?p=26380"},"modified":"2024-10-22T17:50:27","modified_gmt":"2024-10-22T09:50:27","slug":"geopolitics-analysis-on-semiconductor-industry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.semsys.com.tw\/en\/geopolitics-analysis-on-semiconductor-industry\/","title":{"rendered":"Geopolitics Analysis on Semiconductor Industry"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Insights<\/h2>

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Silicon Shield: Can Taiwan\u2019s Semiconductor Industry Deter China Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions?<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Geopolitics Analysis on Semiconductor Industry <\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe concept of the “Silicon Shield” posits Taiwan’s semiconductor industry as a deterrent against potential Chinese aggression. This idea suggests that China’s dependence on Taiwan for essential chip supplies, crucial for its economic growth, renders military action prohibitively costly. Taiwan’s pivotal role in the global semiconductor supply chain is likened to the importance of oil in the 20th century, implying that the US and its allies would intervene to protect their interests. Supported by TSMC Chairman Mark Liu, this concept remains contentious, with experts warning against underestimating ongoing geopolitical risks amid escalating US-China tensions and China’s ambitions towards Taiwan. The analysis encompasses two main aspects: the impact of economic interdependence on conflict, where liberal perspectives argue that interdependence reduces the likelihood of conflict due to opportunity costs, while realist viewpoints highlight increased vulnerabilities and conflict risks; and international response strategies, which balance against threats while hedging risks, with recent trends indicating a preference for risk hedging.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Interdependence and War between the US and China<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The global semiconductor value chain (GVC) comprises a complex network of interdependent actors. The relationship between economic interdependence and armed conflict is multifaceted. Liberal theorists assert that the opportunity costs associated with severing trade ties can deter conflicts, but this calculus is complicated by factors such as climate change, which may exacerbate conflict risks. Future uncertainties further undermine the reliability of opportunity costs as a conflict deterrent.<\/p>

Asymmetry in interdependence, as noted by Keohane and Nye, can result in power imbalances. Such asymmetries may empower states through resource control, potentially leading to conflicts due to perceived shifts in power dynamics. Dale C. Copeland\u2019s trade expectation theory provides a balanced perspective, recognizing that while economic benefits from trade can discourage conflict, dependence may also be exploited for coercion, rendering interdependence both a source of gains and risks. In the context of major and minor powers, semiconductors are critical resources akin to oil, likely to be restricted during conflicts. Such restrictions can foster negative expectations and trigger countermeasures, though they may not independently precipitate major conflicts. Alliances between major and minor ……………….<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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